Informativity Institute · Research brief · 26 October 2026

How to read the MQ evidence audit

Derivations, shared-input closure, external targets, prospective tests and the statistical limits on a combined claim.

Archive source-audit snapshot: September 27, 2026 · Brief prepared: October 26, 2026
Read the companion press release

The audit concerns the role of a result

Appendix E of the current galactic preprint classifies quantitative claims by their inputs, targets and evidentiary interpretation. It is authored within the MQ research program. Calling it an audit does not establish an external review, reproduce every underlying dataset or turn manuscript assertions into independently validated findings. [1]

A derivation establishes a consequence of stated premises. Empirical work asks whether that consequence describes measured quantities under appropriate source and error models. These are different achievements. More equations can make a framework more explicit and testable, but equation counts do not measure the probability that its physical premises are correct.

Table 1 gives the principal classification used by the source. Prospective versus retrospective timing is a separate label that can qualify a target comparison. These categories are not a ranked score, and the audit supplies no conversion from them to a global significance. [1]

Table 1: Principal evidence categories and what they establish
CategoryMeaning in the source auditWhat it does not establish
Input-derived resultA quantity is determined by adopted measured or defined inputsRecovery of the input is not an independent test of that input
Internal closureRelated routes or realization stages are checked with shared foundationsAlgebraic consistency is not a new independent observation
External-target prediction or comparisonThe tested observable did not enter the specified derivation or calibrationTarget independence does not imply independence from every other test
Robustness or source sensitivityAn assumption or source model changes while much of the target data is reusedAnother analysis of the same target is not another population
Numerical correspondence benchmarkNumbers are compared without establishing identical physical observablesNumerical proximity alone does not establish physical equivalence

Three different meanings of independence

Target independence means that the particular observable being tested did not determine the prediction. Statistical independence concerns the joint dependence of errors, inputs and data across results. Independent replication adds a separate execution of the analysis or experiment. A calculation can satisfy the first description without satisfying the other two. [1]

For example, two astrophysical tests can use different galaxies while sharing the same MQ acceleration normalization and cosmic-age input. A stellar-source substitution can supply new mass information while retaining the original rotation-curve target. Those distinctions matter even when all numerical work is correct. Figure 1 shows selected pathways rather than claiming to reconstruct the full dependency graph. [1] [3]

Figure 1. Selected ways comparisons share informationFine-structure calibration can feed a count coefficient and constant closure checks. Cosmic-age normalization can be shared by expansion branches and the galactic acceleration scale. SPARC velocities are reused by fiducial and alternative stellar-source analyses. These selected pathways do not count independent confirmations or represent a complete joint model.Different outputs can retain the same information upstream Shared calibrationFine-structure inputCount constructionConstant closuresReturn to a source quantityor compare related routes Shared age normalizationCosmological normalizationand mapping assumptionsExpansion and gravityTwo expansion branchesand the galactic scale Shared kinematic targetSPARC rotation velocitiesretained across reanalysesStellar-source controlsFiducial and WISE-based sourcestest sensitivity on overlapping data Arrows indicate selected dependencies, not separately confirmed physical causes.A full evidence synthesis must retain the actual shared inputs, target overlap and covariance.
Figure 1. Selected dependency pathways from [1]–[3]. Branches illustrate reuse of information; they do not supply a count of statistically independent tests.

Calibration, temperature closure and expansion comparisons

The fine-structure measurement used to determine an MQ coefficient cannot also serve as an independent validation of that coefficient. Recovering the calibration through a subsequent realization chain is a useful closure test. The same caution applies when an exact SI input or a CODATA identity already contains a constant that a later numerical calculation recovers. [1] [3] [4]

The CMB temperature case requires an explicit input direction. In the historical route classified by Appendix E, MQ count geometry and an adopted Planck-derived age generate a temperature comparison. That age is informed substantially by CMB anisotropy data, so the source calls the result cross-scale closure rather than independent CMB confirmation. A radiation-density value derived from the same temperature is not an extra independent test. [1]

Other current MQ calculations run the input direction from a measured CMB temperature to a conditional cosmic-age normalization. The two routes must retain their own source versions and inputs. An age derived from the same temperature cannot be fed back and counted as a second measurement of that temperature. Small propagated input errors also do not quantify unmodeled physical discrepancy. [1] [4]

The two frame-resolved Hubble values share a common MQ scalar, age normalization and mapping construction. The assignment to observational regimes was retrospective. Appendix E therefore treats their agreements as internal closure, while the public prediction discussion identifies conditions that a future comparison could challenge. Neither wording supplies two statistically independent discoveries. [1] [2]

Likewise, MQ referenceability-domain fractions and standard cosmological density fractions have different physical definitions. Their numerical proximity is a correspondence benchmark. A dynamical cosmological calculation is required before those numbers could establish equivalence of the observables. [1]

What the galaxy examples demonstrate

Table 2 preserves selected source-reported results. Their numerical scales are intentionally different. RMS speed discrepancy, geometric normalization and a confidence interval answer different questions and are not a common scoring unit. [1]

Table 2: Selected source-reported galaxy results and the corresponding evidence boundary
ComparisonReported resultInterpretation retained in the audit
Milky Way, McMillan/EilersRMS 69.03 → 8.90 km/s; generalized chi-square 39.57 for 38 degrees of freedom, probability 0.400Fixed-law source/target comparison; non-rejection depends on the specified source covariance
SPARC catalog and quality subset175 galaxies, 3,366 radii; high-quality subset 99 galaxies, geometric ratio 1.0042Subset and full catalog overlap; source assumptions and residual structure remain material
LITTLE THINGS MQ subset15 galaxies, 288 radial comparisons; geometric ratio 0.9907, 95% interval 0.868–1.130Separate non-SPARC population; galaxy-block interval is not pointwise precision
WISE stellar-source substitutionNew stellar normalization within overlapping SPARC galaxiesSource robustness control using the same kinematic target, not another galaxy population

The principal Milky Way calculation uses the McMillan baryonic source with its halo force excluded and Eilers velocities as a separate target. From the more precise printed RMS values 69.0279 and 8.8965 km/s, subtracting their ratio from unity gives a reduction of 87.112%. That is an effect-size statement about this baseline, not percentage accuracy or a ranking against every dark-matter model. [1]

The same prediction is formally rejected under the adopted observational diagonal alone. Adding the specified conditional McMillan normalization covariance changes the generalized result to a right-tail probability of 0.400. This is a concrete example of evidence depending on the uncertainty model. The full Eilers point-to-point covariance and complete McMillan posterior were not jointly propagated in that calculation. [1]

The SPARC high-quality subset is nested within its 175-galaxy catalog. It does not provide a second independent catalog, and its geometric ratio of 1.0042 does not guarantee that every radial speed is accurate to 0.42%. The empirical radial acceleration functional form also predates the MQ analysis. The claimed test concerns the fixed MQ normalization and proposed derivation under the adopted sources. [1] [10] [11]

The LITTLE THINGS central geometric ratio is 0.93% below unity, but the reported 95% galaxy-block interval spans −13.2% to +13.0% relative to unity. A near-unity center and a broad interval can coexist. Resampling galaxies keeps their radial points together; treating 288 radii as 288 independent galaxies would misstate the uncertainty. The external survey papers are sources of observations, not independent MQ replications. [1] [12]

A worked distinction between a fixed target and a fitted gap

The public gravitational-constant analysis combines mature BIPM and NIST mode comparisons with the stated covariance and campaign assumptions. It reports a common free-minus-servo separation of 60.994 ± 26.930 parts per million, where the uncertainty is one standard uncertainty. MQ’s fixed servo-normalized target is 34.9284 parts per million. The mode interpretation is MQ’s retrospective assignment, not an experimental endorsement by NIST. [6] [7] [13]

A compact Gaussian reconstruction illustrates the statistical questions. Hold that quoted standard uncertainty fixed, calculate the squared residual at each candidate mean, and exponentiate the negative residual square divided by twice the variance. Normalize the resulting likelihood to one at the freely fitted center. This uses the rounded common-gap summary; it does not rerun the paired-measurement covariance synthesis.

The reconstructed fixed-target-to-zero likelihood ratio rounds to 8.14, consistent with the source’s 8.14-to-1 comparison. Allowing the common gap to be fitted freely raises the raw likelihood by only 1.60 relative to the fixed MQ target. These are distinct comparisons. The free model has an added fitted parameter, and any information-criterion or Bayesian comparison must account for its assumptions and complexity. [6]

Table 3 and Figure 2 use the same reconstruction. The curve is a likelihood over candidate common gaps, not a posterior probability distribution, a new experimental sample or a distribution of the exact MQ prediction.

Table 3: Gaussian common-gap reconstruction from the printed summary
Candidate mean gapGap (ppm)Likelihood relative to free maximumQuestion answered
Exact zero00.0769How the data compare with no common separation
Fixed MQ target34.92840.6260Compatibility of this specified numerical target
Freely fitted common gap60.9941.0000Best center when one gap parameter is estimated
Figure 2. Fixed and fitted gap values answer different questionsA Gaussian likelihood reconstruction uses the reported common gap 60.994 and standard uncertainty 26.930 parts per million. Zero, the fixed MQ target 34.9284 and the free maximum 60.994 are marked. The fixed-to-zero likelihood ratio is about 8.14, while free maximum to fixed is about 1.60. No posterior probability or new experiment is plotted.Compatibility with a target is different from measuring that exact targetGaussian reconstruction · common gap 60.994 ± 26.930 ppm · fixed quoted uncertainty -40 0 40 80 120 160 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 Zero Fixed MQ Free fit Candidate common free-minus-servo separation (ppm)Likelihood relative to free maximumFixed MQ / zero: 8.14 · free maximum / fixed MQ: 1.60 · neither ratio is a posterior probability
Figure 2. Scalar Gaussian illustration reconstructed from the rounded summary in [6]. The source’s full covariance synthesis was not rerun. Adding its heterogeneity contribution changes the fixed-to-zero comparison to about 5.4 to 1.

The source reports that allowing an additional heterogeneity contribution reduces the fixed-MQ-to-zero likelihood ratio to about 5.4. That sensitivity is material. A nonzero mode separation can also arise from apparatus effects, and a broad likelihood compatible with 34.9284 ppm does not uniquely identify MQ as its cause. The fitted maximum is not located at that exact target. [6] [7]

Statistical quantities cannot be exchanged as scores

Table 4 gives a practical interpretation guide. It is consistent with the American Statistical Association’s distinction between a test probability, effect size and the probability that a hypothesis is true. Each statistical method still requires its own sampling, covariance or model assumptions. [8]

Table 4: Statistical summaries answer different questions
SummaryWhat it describesWhat it cannot supply by itself
RMS residualTypical speed discrepancy with squared-error weightingA model probability or covariance-aware likelihood
Standardized residual or pullDifference relative to a specified difference uncertaintyDiscovery significance without a valid sampling and selection model
Goodness-of-fit probabilityTail area of a test statistic under a specified modelProbability that MQ is true, or proof of equivalence
Likelihood ratioRelative likelihood of the observed data under named hypothesesPosterior odds without priors and the relevant model set
Information criterionA defined fit-versus-complexity comparison among specified modelsA universal sigma or direct truth probability
Confidence or bootstrap intervalUncertainty under its specified construction and resampling unitA pointwise error bar or a differently defined uncertainty

An agreement described as a number of standard uncertainties is not automatically a discovery statistic. In particular, an older transformed Hubble concordance score cannot be multiplied by a laboratory likelihood ratio or a galaxy probability to create a portfolio-wide significance. They have different null hypotheses and dependency structures. [1] [2]

Chronology, open tests and a defensible synthesis

The dates must specify what was fixed. Pre-existing MQ numerical gravitational values are distinct from the later assignment of particular torsion-balance operating modes. Likewise, no galaxy-specific MQ parameter fitting does not establish that a study was publicly preregistered or conducted blind. A dated protocol should record the target, source construction, numerical prediction, uncertainty model and exclusion rules before target inspection. [1] [6] [9]

The proposed intermediate-redshift age-dependence test remains prospective in the cited source. Existing observations and an exact conditional law do not make it a completed comparison. Full lensing, cluster-merger and cosmological-spectrum calculations are also separate requirements. A limited spherical lens benchmark or an action-level mathematical closure cannot be counted as a successful nonlinear cluster simulation or a jointly fitted set of cosmological spectra. [1] [2]

Combining evidence is possible in principle, but requires a specified joint model. It must identify shared calibration variables, overlapping targets, source systematics, cross-covariance, fitted parameters and selection or retrospective choices. Hypotheses must be defined for the statistic being combined. Bayesian odds further require priors and explicit alternatives. Simply multiplying published probabilities or treating every concordance as a new independent trial does not meet those requirements. [1] [2]

September 27, 2026 remains the archive’s source-audit snapshot. The cited galactic manuscript separately records a September 8 completed-source milestone and later revisions. Neither is assigned here as a new experimental discovery or a verified publication date for this audit. This Brief was prepared October 26, 2026.

For reporting, request the dated source version, exact calibration inputs, target-data overlap, covariance matrices, residual definitions and the fit or likelihood implementation. Ask for all material residuals and sensitivity results, including unfavorable ones. This Brief reproduces summary arithmetic and the scalar likelihood illustration; it does not regenerate the galaxy catalogs, paired-mode covariance synthesis or a joint MQ evidence analysis.

Research sources and further reading

  1. J. A. Geiger, A First Principles Derivation of the Galactic Radial Acceleration Relation from Measurement Quantization. Current public research preprint, Appendix E, Comparison E.1, and Sections 4–5. Primary source for this evidentiary classification and the MQ galaxy statistics. Completed-source milestone September 8, 2026, with later revisions; journal publication of this version is not established. Open source →
  2. Informativity Institute, Predictions of Measurement Quantization. Current public numerical targets, test status and dependency qualifications. A list of related tests is not a list of statistically independent confirmations. Open source →
  3. Informativity Institute, Input Definitions. Public overview of recurring physical inputs and the distinction between those inputs and system-specific baryonic or observational information. The detailed dependency audit in [1] governs the case classifications used here. Open source →
  4. Informativity Institute, Physical Support for Measurement Quantization. Public overview of calculated quantities, calibration closure and observational comparisons. Summary illustrations retain the dependency and evidence qualifications stated in this Brief. Open source →
  5. Informativity Institute, Concordance. Public visual summary of numerical comparisons. A concordance graphic is not a joint likelihood, dependency matrix or independent empirical certification. Open source →
  6. Informativity Institute, Gravitational Constant: MQ Derivation and Experimental Test. Current public common-mode-gap synthesis, quoted covariance assumptions, fixed-target likelihood comparison and retrospective apparatus-mode assignment. Source of the 60.994 ± 26.930 ppm summary and the heterogeneity-sensitive likelihood comparison used here. Open source →
  7. S. Schlamminger and collaborators, Redetermination of the Gravitational Constant with the BIPM torsion balance at NIST. Metrologia (2026), DOI 10.1088/1681-7575/ae570f. NIST publication record dated April 16, 2026. Experimental source; the MQ common-gap synthesis and realization interpretation are separate analyses, not NIST endorsements. Open source →
  8. American Statistical Association, Statement on Statistical Significance and P-Values, released March 7, 2016. Associated statement, The American Statistician 70, 129–133, DOI 10.1080/00031305.2016.1154108. General statistical interpretation, not an assessment of MQ. Open source →
  9. B. A. Nosek, C. R. Ebersole, A. C. DeHaven and D. T. Mellor, The preregistration revolution. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115, 2600–2606 (2018), DOI 10.1073/pnas.1708274114. Online publication March 12, 2018. Methodological distinction between exploratory and confirmatory analysis, not an MQ evaluation. Open source →
  10. S. S. McGaugh, F. Lelli and J. M. Schombert, The Radial Acceleration Relation in Rotationally Supported Galaxies. Physical Review Letters 117, 201101 (2016), DOI 10.1103/PhysRevLett.117.201101. Public author preprint. Prior empirical functional form; its existence is not counted as an MQ discovery. Open source →
  11. F. Lelli, S. S. McGaugh and J. M. Schombert, SPARC: Mass Models for 175 Disk Galaxies with Spitzer Photometry and Accurate Rotation Curves. Astronomical Journal 152, 157 (2016), DOI 10.3847/0004-6256/152/6/157. Public author preprint. Supplies observational products; the later MQ analysis is not a replication conducted by the SPARC team. Open source →
  12. S.-H. Oh and collaborators, High-resolution mass models of dwarf galaxies from LITTLE THINGS. Astronomical Journal 149, 180 (2015), DOI 10.1088/0004-6256/149/6/180. Public author preprint. External dwarf-galaxy source study, distinct from the later 15-galaxy MQ reconstruction and test. Open source →
  13. Informativity Institute, NIST–BIPM MQ Brief. Public detailed comparison of measurement configurations and proposed future experiment. The historical numerical theory and the later apparatus-mode interpretation have different chronological status. Open source →

Prepared October 26, 2026. MQ classifications and experimental or galaxy summaries retain the stated source status. No global significance, external MQ certification or new physical experiment is claimed.

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